- The Pragmatic Investor
- Posts
- š„Visa Cracked 5.4% ā And Iām Not Flinching
š„Visa Cracked 5.4% ā And Iām Not Flinching

šGood Monday Morning, Folks!
Visa just lost $20 billion in market cap ā not because it fumbled earnings, not because the economy cracked ā but because Amazon and Walmart might be thinking about using stablecoins. Thatās it. Thatās the fear. The market saw two retailers flirt with blockchain and immediately acted like Visaās business model was being carved up with hedge clippers.
But hereās the thing: this wasnāt panic over something broken. It was panic over something changing. And change ā especially when it threatens fees, power, and legacy pipes ā makes investors twitchy as hell. Thatās when the best setups show up: in the overreaction, not the outcome.
This week, Iām zeroing in on Visaās gut-punch drop, the deeper power shift behind it, and why smart capital shouldnāt be asking āIs this the end?ā but āWhoās going to write the next rails?ā Because when the crowd sells the headline, the edge is hidden in the pivot.
Letās dig in. This oneās not about the chart ā itās about the chessboard.
ā”Quick Hits: What Actually Deserves Your Attention This Week
Everyone expected the Fed to hold. What they didnāt expect was zero clarity on when the cuts are actually coming. Powellās vague language now has Wall Street pricing in one cut, maybe, and money market flows are already rotating. The risk? Sitting in tech momentum trades while the rate regime quietly drags on longer than your portfolio can wait.
Dividend FOMO is back ā and YouTube is full of passive income charts. But hereās the truth: you canāt earn $1,000/month on $100K without taking serious risk or chasing yield traps. This piece breaks down why yield ā safety ā and why chasing income without understanding dividend stability, payout ratios, and sector durability will burn your capital faster than inflation.
Most investors think the EV risk is China. But this week, itās D.C. Trump just backed a bill that would kill EV tax credits ā including Teslaās $7,500 consumer incentive. Thatās not just policy noise ā thatās a direct hit to demand elasticity. Tesla bulls are focusing on CyberCabs and software margins. They should be watching Washington.
TOGETHER WITH OUR PARTNER
Could you afford $3,500 to remove a chew toy?
From $3,500 to remove a chew toy, to $7,000 for a hip replacement, keeping your pets healthy is getting more and more expensive. Fortunately, pet insurance can help offset these rising costs. Pet insurance can cover eligible accidents and illnesses with up to 90% reimbursement. Get your buddy covered today with plans starting at just $10 a month.
š”One Big Idea: Visa Dropped 5.4%. Hereās What the Crowd Got Dead Wrong.
When I saw Visa crater 5.4% on June 13, I didnāt flinch. But I remembered that feeling.
The same gut-kick happened in 2018 when Square dropped on regulatory fear. Or in 2021 when PayPal slipped because everyone thought BNPL would kill cards. Back then, the headlines were loud. The setups? Quiet. And this week, Visa gave us that same asymmetric setup again ā you just had to be paying attention.
Hereās what the herd missed: this wasnāt about slowing spend or delinquencies. It was about Amazon, Walmart, and a handful of retail giants exploring stablecoins to cut Visa out of the payment loop altogether.
That's not noise. Thatās war.
š This Isnāt a Collapse ā Itās a Forced Reset
Letās be clear. Visa didnāt blow earnings. It didnāt guide down. It didnāt lose market share.
It got punched in the face by a future thatās arriving faster than expected.
When Amazon and Walmart start asking why theyāre paying 2%ā3% of every transaction to Visa and Mastercard ā and then exploring stablecoins to bypass that toll ā you better believe the market pays attention.
The 5.4% drop wasnāt about current risk. It was a violent repricing of future leverage. Merchants just reminded everyone that Visa is powerful ā but not untouchable.
šļø Regulation Isnāt Risk. Itās a Trigger.
The market sees the Genius Act and other legislation as existential threats to Visaās fee structure. Thatās short-sighted.
Yes, regulation could open the door for new payment rails and tokenized merchant systems. But Visa isnāt some slow-moving bank. Itās already lobbying hard, building token frameworks, and preparing to co-opt the very tech thatās supposed to disrupt it.
This is the part the crowd always forgets: incumbents donāt just roll over ā they pivot. And the winners? They write the next rulebook.
š Three Things That Actually Matter Now
1. š§Ø Merchant Leverage Just Got Real
Visaās worst-case scenario isnāt a consumer slowdown ā itās merchants building their own networks. Thatās happening. And it forces Visa to rethink pricing, partnerships, and platform speed.
2. š”ļø Consumer Inertia Still Rules
Even if stablecoins launch, will shoppers abandon credit cards? Probably not. Cards are tied to trust, rewards, and fraud protection. Stablecoins need years of UX, branding, and regulatory clarity to match that.
3. š§ Visaās Moat Is Becoming a Moving Target
Itās not about volume anymore ā itās about adaptability. If Visa becomes the preferred layer for token payments, it wins. If not, it risks being commoditized. This is an inflection point, not a funeral.
š§ What I'm Watching From Here
This isnāt a ābuy the dipā moment. Itās a watch the pivot moment.
Visaās response over the next 1ā2 quarters will show whether theyāre reacting or re-architecting their role in the next payments cycle.
Key things on my radar:
š¤ Partnerships with stablecoin tech providers (think Circle, Solana Pay, or private tokens tied to merchant ecosystems).
š£ Regulatory updates to the Genius Act and how Visa positions itself in public statements.
š§¾ Merchant pilot programs ā if Amazon or Walmart push ahead with tokenized rails, thatās your signal to reevaluate Visaās long-term fee power.
š” Pragmatic Insight
Visaās June 13 drop was ugly. It wiped out $20 billion in market cap in hours. But hereās the thing:
Fear didnāt come from what Visa did ā it came from what it might not do fast enough.
Thatās why this isnāt about earnings or guidance ā itās about control. Merchants are tired of paying a toll to a network they didnāt build. And for the first time in decades, they might have the technology ā and soon the legal support ā to do something about it.
But thatās not a death sentence. Itās a reset. Visaās next strategic step will either cement its role as the invisible rail powering tokenized payments ā or signal that itās at risk of disruption from the outside in.
š Missed Fridayās Setup? Catch the TSMC Breakdown Before Itās Too Late
Last week, I broke down the exact moment I missed a $50K gain on TSMC ā and why Iām not letting that happen again. Weāre talking 40% revenue growth, fabs booked through 2025, and a setup most investors are sleepwalking past.
Smart positioning beats perfect timing. This oneās still in motion.
𤯠You Still Think 10% a Day Is Impossible? Good. Keep Thinking That.
Most traders canāt even hit 10% in a year ā and Wall Street wants you to believe thatās just āhow it is.ā
But what if the real edge wasnāt in trading moreā¦
ā¦it was in trading smarter, with a system so precise, it can consistently target 10% a day?
Thatās the Ten% a Day (TAD) System.
š« No guessing.
š« No gambling.
š« No chasing momentum trades just to break even.
Hereās what youāll unlock inside:
ā
A proven daily framework for 10% compounding returns
ā
High-probability setups with built-in risk controls
ā
A minimalist, repeatable system that separates winners from wishful thinkers
If that sounds unrealistic ā great.
This system isnāt for traders who want to be average.
Itās for the 1% who want to break the rules ā and rewrite them.
š§ Final Thought
Thereās a moment ā right after a stock drops on fear, not fact ā when the market tells you more about itself than it does about the company. Visaās decline wasnāt about earnings or execution. It was about discomfort with the unknown, a sudden recalibration of power dynamics. When giants like Amazon and Walmart hint they might build their own rails, investors donāt wait for proof ā they assume collapse. That instinct says more about the crowd than the company.
But Iāve learned over the years that disruption doesnāt reward the loudest narrative ā it rewards the sharpest pivot. The next phase of investing isnāt about clinging to legacy moats or chasing new tech blindly. Itās about spotting when old players quietly adapt to new rules. Thatās where conviction earns its edge ā not in predicting the headlines, but in understanding the power behind the rewrites..
š§ What did you think of today's newsletter? |
ā AK

Disclaimer: The content on this blog is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the loss of principal. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent any company or organization. Readers should conduct their own research and due diligence before making any financial decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
Reply