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- Pragmatic Friday: š§ Why Iām Loading Google While Itās Boring
Pragmatic Friday: š§ Why Iām Loading Google While Itās Boring

š Good Morning, Pragmatic Thinkers!
The market spent the week chasing shadows.
Nvidia hit another high, and suddenly every headline screamed āAI isnāt done yet.ā Meanwhile, oil spiked, rate-cut odds slipped, and everyone pretended like we havenāt seen this movie before ā where macro noise gets mistaken for momentum. What barely got airtime? Alphabet quietly grinding higher, earnings expectations softening in a calculated way, and signs that institutional money is positioning ahead of time ā not reacting to it.
Thatās the edge right now. While most of Wall Street is still trading the past quarterās narrative, the next leg of this market will belong to those who can sit still, size up quietly, and strike when it counts. This weekās Playbook isnāt about the flash. Itās about the setups that donāt need your attention ā until theyāve earned it. Letās dig in.
š„ Market Pulse ā What Actually Mattered This Week
š Traders Eye Nvidia for a $4 Trillion Close
While retail cheered Nvidiaās march toward $4 trillion, smart money was already hedging. Option volumes soared, but net inflows slowed ā a signal that this isnāt pure conviction buying anymore, itās fear of missing the next 5%. When everyoneās watching the same chart, the trade is crowded. And crowded trades break without warning.
š§Ø Trumpās Trade Team Sends Out āTariff Lettersā
Forget the headlines ā this was the first real signal that trade disruption is back on the table. The letters to 2025 transition teams werenāt just posturing. Theyāre groundwork for sweeping tariffs across allies and adversaries. If youāre not baking in geopolitical risk into your supply chain plays or export-heavy holdings, youāre behind.
š§© History Says the S&P 400 and 600 Could Soar
While the spotlight stays on the Magnificent Seven, mid- and small-caps just posted their strongest 10-day breadth in months. Historically, this kind of participation expansion marks the start of a durable rally ā not the end of one. The next leg higher might not come from the names you already own. It might come from the names you forgot to research.
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šÆ The Pragmatic Playbook: Slow, But Surely⦠On Its Way Up

Iāll be honest. In a market thatās been obsessed with anything AI, itās been tempting to chase whatever name flashes 20% in a week. You see Nvidia printing another all-time high. Palantir flying on āmilitary-gradeā hype. Even Meta starts whispering about open-source LLMs and rockets higher.
And then thereās Google.
Quiet. Steady. Boring, even.
No flashy moves. No headline-grabbing partnerships. Just this slow, deliberate climb from the $160s to $176 over the past few weeks. Not enough to make TikTok stock bros talk about it, but just enough to catch my attention.
Because hereās the thing: when a stock thatās supposedly āpast its primeā starts rising in silence ā and no oneās talking about it ā thatās usually not an accident.
Thatās how serious accumulation starts.
And with Q2 earnings around the corner, this setup feels eerily familiar to those moments where the crowd yawns⦠right before the chart breaks out and doesnāt look back.
š What Just Happened

Letās cut through the noise.
Alphabet (GOOGL) has quietly tacked on ~10% in the past 2 weeks. No explosive headlines. No viral AI demos. But the resilience is telling.
Right now, the stock is trading around $177, comfortably above the post-Q1 base. That move came after a Q1 earnings beat that crushed expectations:
Revenue: $80.54B (+15% YoY)
EPS: $2.81 (vs. $2.27 expected)
YouTube ads up 20%
Google Cloud revenue: $10.1B, turning in a profit for the 3rd straight quarter
Most importantly, Alphabet announced its first-ever dividend (20 cents/share) and a massive $70B stock buyback. Thatās a mature signal ā a subtle shift from growth-at-any-cost to āweāre a fortress now.ā
The market barely reacted then. But this next earnings could be different.
š Whatās Coming Next
All eyes are now on July 22nd, 2025, when Alphabet will report Q2 results. Here's the Street consensus:
EPS: $2.12 ā $2.23 (a drop from Q1 due to higher R&D and AI capex)
Revenue: ~$93.6B (sequential growth from Q1)
Key areas under scrutiny:
Cloud margins ā can they sustain profitability?
AI monetization across Gemini, Search, and YouTube
Ad spend resilience ā especially as competition intensifies with Apple/ChatGPT creeping in
This isnāt just another earnings report. Itās a credibility check on Googleās transition into the AI era.
Will Gemini be more than just a demo tool? Can Search remain the cash cow despite AI disruption? And will advertisers keep spending as consumer behavior evolves?
š§ What It Triggered In Me
When I looked at the setup this week, something clicked.
Iāve made the mistake before ā thinking I need to catch the flashiest trade or the most āobviousā AI play. But the deeper Iāve gone in this game, the more Iāve learned to respect the setups that no one is hyping, but insiders are clearly leaning into.
Google is that setup right now.
The buybacks. The dividend. The tight trading range. The steady volume accumulation since April. It all points to a slow hand building size ā while everyone else is busy chasing rockets.
Thatās not retail. Thatās institutional. And institutions donāt load up unless they believe thereās visibility ahead ā even if that clarity hasn't hit the headlines yet.
š The Setup Iām Tracking
Letās lay out the fundamentals and technicals:
š§¾ Fundamentals:
Current P/E: ~26x forward
Cloud profitability expanding: margins expected to reach 17ā18% in FY25
Capex guidance: $75B for the year (heavily AI/data center weighted)
EPS expected to compress this quarter, but bounce back in Q3/Q4 with AI monetization tailwinds
š Technicals:
Trading at ~$175.52 with strong support around $172
50-day MA curling higher and closing in on 200-day
Volume on up days > volume on down days since May = quiet accumulation
No major resistance until $188ā$190 range
š” This is a coiled spring. If earnings deliver even a mild surprise ā particularly around Cloud or Gemini integration ā it could push the stock into new 52-week highs.
šØ What Iāll Do ā And What Would Stop Me
ā
Accumulating in the $172ā$175 range, especially on any pre-earnings weakness
ā
Watching for guidance on Q3-Q4 EPS and margins ā thatās where the upside lies
ā
If the stock clears $180 post-earnings on volume ā Iāll consider scaling
ā
Price target: $200ā$210 by year-end if sentiment flips on AI monetization
ā Iāll cut or reduce if:
They miss on cloud growth or margins stall
AI commentary is vague or underwhelming
Regulatory headlines gain steam post-earnings (EU, DOJ, etc.)
Price breaks below $168 with high volume ā a clear exit signal
This isnāt a YOLO play ā itās a conviction-based, slow burn setup that rewards patience and clarity.
Final Thought
In this market, attention is currency. But price is truth.
And the price action in Google is telling a quiet truth that few are listening to.
While others chase stories that already ran 40%, Iām watching the stock thatās loading up with purpose ā the one that doesn't need hype to move.
If Alphabet hits even modest expectations this quarter and shows AI is actually driving margins⦠the breakout will catch most people flat-footed.
And thatās exactly the kind of setup I want to be in.
š§ What did you think of today's newsletter? |
š§The Friday Reset
This week felt like a test of patience ā the kind that whispers, āYouāre missing it,ā every time another stock rips on hype. I wonāt lie, it messes with your head. You start questioning your setups, your timing, even your process. And thatās the danger: when conviction starts bending to noise, not signals.
Hereās what I remind myself when that doubt creeps in ā you donāt need to catch every move, just the right ones. The market rewards clarity, not urgency. And sometimes, the best position is just sitting with a setup that hasnāt played out yet. Let others jump. Iāll wait for my edge ā even if it takes longer to pay off. Because Iāve chased before, and Iāve paid for it. Now? Iād rather be early, clear-headed, and alone⦠than fast, loud, and wrong.
ā AK

Disclaimer: The content on this blog is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the loss of principal. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent any company or organization. Readers should conduct their own research and due diligence before making any financial decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
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