Midweek Deep Dive: 💸 Is Nvidia At $150 Still... Cheap?

🌞 Good Morning, Folks!

So let me get this straight — Nvidia surges after earnings, then drops 5% over a couple days on no real news… and the media treats it like the AI bubble just burst?

Meanwhile, institutional money keeps flowing in, trillion-parameter models keep scaling up, and hyperscalers are placing bigger chip orders. But all the headlines want to talk about is whether it's “too late” to buy.

This is the kind of market confusion that creates edge — if you're paying attention.

This week’s focus isn’t about chasing momentum. It’s about understanding positioning, strategic pivots, and why clarity matters more than price action. Let’s dig in.

🌐 From Around the Web

📈 TSMC’s Sales Explode 40% – AI Boom Shows No Signs of Slowing

Don’t sleep on Taiwan’s chip king. TSMC just posted a nearly 40% YoY revenue spike in May—its fastest pace since 2022—fueled by ravenous AI chip orders. While Wall Street obsesses over Nvidia and Super Micro, this upstream enabler is quietly cashing in. If you think the AI rally is over, this is your wake-up call.

🍏 iPads Are Finally Getting Useful—And That’s a Big Deal for Apple Bulls

Apple’s iPad has long been a product in search of a purpose. That may be changing—fast. The rollout of a more desktop-like experience in iPadOS 18 could unlock real productivity use cases, turning iPads into legitimate laptop alternatives. In a year when hardware is flatlining, this could quietly revive Apple’s ecosystem growth and create an underpriced upside.

📉 CEOs Are Ditching the Recession Narrative—Here’s What That Signals

Only 29% of CEOs now expect a recession—down from 72% last year. Corporate leaders are turning more bullish, even as retail investors remain jittery. This sentiment pivot often precedes capital spending rebounds and stock market catch-ups. If you're still hedging for a crash, you might be preparing for the wrong war.

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🔍 This Week’s Focus: Nvidia

On May 23, 2025, Nvidia ripped 10% higher after blowing past Wall Street’s expectations. I had a limit order set... and I canceled it at the last minute. The export ban headlines, margin compression fears, and AI fatigue all played in my head like a broken record.

While everyone else was celebrating the rally, I sat there second-guessing myself. That hesitation? It cost me 14% in just two weeks. Nvidia didn’t flinch. It didn’t collapse. It exploded.

That miss still burns

Because here’s the truth: Nvidia has already built its own economic gravity well. It’s not just another AI trade. It’s the platform other platforms are built on. And this recent pullback? It was a gift wrapped in fear.

🌟 Why This Matters Now

The market loves clean narratives. But Nvidia’s reality is more layered. The U.S. government slapped AI chip export bans. In response, Nvidia didn’t flinch. It pivoted.

They started designing "compliance-grade" chips like the H20 specifically for China—not just to sidestep the ban, but to dominate within its constraints. That’s not damage control. That’s dominance thinking.

Meanwhile, the Blackwell GPU platform is rolling out. The GB200 superchips, tailor-made for trillion-parameter models, are set to reshape inference computing. And behind the scenes? Nvidia just inked deals with Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon to power next-gen AI workloads. This isn’t about one earnings print. It’s about positioning ahead of a $1T AI economy.

If you’re still waiting for Nvidia to "cool off," you might be waiting on the wrong side of history.

💸 The Numbers I Can't Ignore

• Revenue: $26.0B for Q1 FY2026, up 262% YoY — powered by record data center sales

• Data Center Revenue: $22.6B (87% of total revenue), up 427% YoY

• Gross Margin: 71.3%, rivaling SaaS-level margins

• Net Income: $14.9B, up 628% YoY

• R&D Spend: Up 40%, showing Nvidia is reinvesting hard into staying ahead

Most investors are still treating Nvidia like a chip stock. It isn’t. It’s a software-margin platform business hidden inside silicon.

And the most underappreciated number?

• China exposure dropped to just 9% of total revenue — meaning bans don’t hit as hard as the headlines suggest.

🔍 Where I Stand

I’ve misread Nvidia before.

In 2021, I assumed crypto GPU demand was unsustainable. I trimmed. The stock doubled. In 2022, I feared tech contagion and sat out the low-$100s range. The bottom was in. I’m not making the same mistake again.

This isn’t a momentum trade. It’s a positioning play ahead of a major rerating. While retail is taking profits, funds are still buying. Just last quarter:

• BlackRock increased its stake by 3.5M shares

• Vanguard boosted holdings by 1.2M shares

• 13F filings show massive options exposure across hedge funds betting on long-dated upside

This window won’t stay open long.

What the crowd missed this time? Nvidia’s pivot to selling inferior chips to China was actually a strategic unlock. It opened up a backdoor to retain market share, while allocating top-tier Blackwell supply to the U.S. and EU.

They’re playing geopolitical chess. Most investors are still reading headlines like it’s checkers.

📈 What I'm Tracking Next

Here are the high-signal clues I’m watching:

• Blackwell Launch Pipeline: Will GB200 ship on time for Meta, Amazon, and Google?

• Channel Checks: Monitoring Taiwan Semi & HBM3e supply for any bottlenecks

• China Revenue Trends: Is H20 demand stabilizing or collapsing?

• Options Flow: Spikes in Jan 2026 $150 and $200 calls are worth watching

• AI Infrastructure Spending: Oracle, Meta, and Microsoft all budgeted +25% YoY AI infra capex. Who gets those orders?

If Nvidia keeps pulling 70%+ margins while growing 200%+ YoY in data centers, we may need to rethink what “fair value” looks like. $150 might not be expensive — it might be cheap.

And yes, there are risks:

• Regulation targeting AI monopolies

• Supply chain tightness in HBM

• A sharp cut in AI spending if macro deteriorates

But all of those are known. They’re priced in. What’s not priced in? The edge Nvidia now has in compliant innovation. They’re building moats around the new rules.

🔎 Final Take

Nvidia’s worst may already be behind it — not because it’s invincible, but because it’s adaptive. Most companies complain about policy. Nvidia builds around it. The China workaround wasn’t weakness. It was strength in disguise.

This is no longer just the AI trade of the decade. This is the infrastructure layer of the modern computing stack. From defense to drug discovery to autonomous driving, Nvidia is underwriting the next tech supercycle.

I missed the dip. I won’t miss the rerating.

👉 Missed Last Week’s Deep Dive on PLTR?

While most investors chase flashy AI narratives, we went deep on Palantir—the AI stock racking up government contracts and quietly embedding itself into national security systems. This isn't about hype. It’s about defense-grade data infrastructure and long-term positioning. If you're still treating PLTR like a meme stock, you’re already behind.

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🧠 Final Word

The noise this week has been deafening—jobs data, chip wars, AI headlines, rate whispers. And yet, the market keeps grinding higher while conviction feels lower than ever. It’s the kind of environment where emotional traders chase green candles and dump red ones, convinced they’re being tactical.

But real positioning doesn’t happen when you’re reacting. It happens when you pause, filter, and act with clarity. I’ve learned this the hard way: if the story hasn’t changed, then the price is just noise. This week, we saw what happens when fear distorts fundamentals and narratives take the wheel. That’s precisely where the edge is — not in predicting, but in staying grounded when others flinch.