🕵️ Google’s Still a Steal — Here’s Why

🌞Good Monday Morning, Folks!

🧨 Everyone talks about Nvidia’s trillion-dollar run... but no one’s asking why Google’s stock is still stuck in second gear.

That’s the thing about crowd psychology — it’s obsessed with motion, not value. While the herd is busy chasing the next shiny breakout, Alphabet’s quietly printing cash, building moats around AI infrastructure, and somehow still trades like it’s being punished for winning search too early.

And yet — you can feel it — Wall Street’s tone has shifted. Google’s not the flashy narrative anymore. It’s the boring mega-cap with “regulatory risk” baggage. But here’s the kicker: that’s exactly where the opportunity lives. When the market shrugs off a generational compounder, that’s when I lean in and start asking what’s being mispriced.

In today’s One Big Idea, I’m breaking down the gap between Google’s real operating engine and how the market continues to discount it. It’s not about buying cheap — it’s about knowing when the setup is strategically misunderstood. Because the crowd never misses the rally at the top — they miss the pivot before it.

⚡ Quick Hits

📉 Jobs Blowout or Fed Headache? Why May’s Report Isn’t Bullish

May's payroll report just shocked Wall Street: 272,000 jobs added, crushing expectations — and crushing hopes of a near-term Fed pivot. Wages jumped, unemployment ticked up, and markets flipped from soft landing optimism to rate-cut skepticism in hours.

If you're still betting on cuts in July, this data just threw a wrench in your thesis. This isn’t a green light — it’s a warning flare.

💰 The $1 Million Shortcut Most Investors Miss

You don’t need 30 stocks or perfect timing — just one high-leverage shift in your approach. This breakdown shows how changing your contribution behavior — not your asset mix — can accelerate your path to millionaire status with shocking efficiency.

In a market chasing complexity, this is where simplicity delivers alpha. Ignore this at your net worth’s peril.

📊 The Data Problem No One Wants to Talk About

Revisions, anomalies, and statistical noise — U.S. economic data is looking shakier by the month, and the Fed is still flying by these numbers. From inflation to jobs to growth, the signals are getting distorted — yet markets still react like they’re gospel.

If you’re building positions based on first reads, you’re probably one revision away from being wrong. In this market, second-order thinking isn’t optional — it’s survival.

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💡One Big Idea: Google's Hidden Power Move: Still the Underdog of the Magnificent 7?

Wall Street loves flashy stories. AI hype, moonshot ambitions, the next trillion-dollar moonwalk. But when it comes to Google (or Alphabet, for the pedantic), the market's attention span seems to shrink. Despite sitting on one of the strongest business models of our time, GOOG continues to trade like the least exciting member of the Magnificent 7.

And I think that's exactly where the edge is.

This week, I want to talk about why Google might be the most misunderstood of the mega-cap techs. Not broken. Not lagging. Misunderstood. Because if you're watching just the AI headlines or comparing stock price performance year-to-date, you're missing where this thing is being stealthily repositioned.

Here's what I think is happening: Google is laying low, but the structural drivers beneath its $2T empire are quietly firming up. While Meta is trying to reinvent social, Apple is chasing the Vision Pro, and Nvidia is printing chips like gold bars, Alphabet is turning its legacy dominance into something much harder to replicate: infrastructure-level stickiness.

🪨 Core Narrative: A Boring Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight

Google Search is still a monster. And despite headlines about antitrust and AI competition, it's not going away. In fact, global search ad revenue hit $46B in Q1 2025 alone — up 14% YoY. You read that right. Fourteen percent. From a product most people claim is "stagnant."

YouTube? Quietly becoming the most monetizable video platform in history. Shorts are now clocking over 70B daily views, and monetization is rising 20% year-over-year.

Cloud? GCP still trails AWS and Azure, sure. But it's growing faster. 28% revenue growth in Q1, pushing the unit into recurring profitability — finally. The market pretends to reward growth with profitability, yet Google's multiple barely budged.

So why does this matter now? Because the market narrative is still stuck in 2022. That Google is a one-trick pony. That it's behind in AI. That the DOJ lawsuits are existential. But that's fear without context. And I think it’s blinding investors to what could be a massive re-rating event once the sentiment dam breaks.

Because here’s the truth: Google is already more diversified than most of its Magnificent 7 peers.

• Meta is still 98% ads.

• Apple is still 50% iPhone.

• Nvidia is still mostly datacenter GPUs.

• But Google? Ads, Cloud, YouTube, Android, Play Store, Waymo, DeepMind, Chrome OS, Workspace...

Yet it trades like a fragile monopoly.

🌎 The AI Question: Still Falling Behind? Or Playing the Long Game?

Here’s where it gets tricky.

Google was late to productizing AI. Bard stumbled. Gemini needed a reboot. Microsoft looked like it ate its lunch. But zoom out. The underlying AI talent? Google still has it. They birthed the Transformer architecture. They own DeepMind. And now, they’re finally shipping Gemini 1.5 at scale, with full Workspace integration, YouTube summarization, and the API war chest firing up.

More importantly: AI is now being baked into Google’s ecosystem, not sold as a side hustle. That’s huge.

While ChatGPT is still monetizing via Pro subscriptions, Google is embedding intelligence into existing workflows: Docs, Gmail, Search, Cloud. That’s the real moat. No need to teach users a new product. Just upgrade what they already use daily.

And in adtech, AI has already supercharged performance. ROAS is up double digits across verticals for advertisers using AI-powered campaigns.

📊 What the Market Is Missing (And Why That Matters)

Google is still being priced like a slow-growth incumbent. That’s the mistake.

Its forward P/E is ~17x. Meanwhile:

• Nvidia is 35x+

• Amazon is 28x

• Microsoft is 32x

• Even Meta is ~23x

Yet Google has $140B in cash, $100B in buybacks authorized, and is printing $80B in free cash flow this year.

The market is obsessed with narrative momentum. But structural advantage + margin durability + AI upside? That’s where smart capital should be looking.

My take? When the market finally re-rates Google from "search company with AI risk" to "platform empire with AI pricing power," you won't get a second chance to position. That rotation will happen violently.

🚀 Here’s What I’m Tracking

• Q2 Earnings (July): Ad revenue growth + Cloud margins will be the tell. If both accelerate? The rerating argument strengthens.

• Gemini Enterprise Adoption: Watch for enterprise bundling across Workspace and Cloud. If usage ramps, it signals monetization isn't a pipe dream.

• DOJ Case Updates: If Google wins or even delays the most damaging antitrust outcomes, that overhang gets removed fast. Risk premium shrinks.

⚖️ So, Is Google Undervalued?

Yes. But not because of a DCF model or Wall Street price target. It’s undervalued because the market doesn’t know what to do with it yet.

It’s not the shiny AI play. It’s not the flashy new gadget story. It’s not the social network meme machine.

It’s...all of the above. Without screaming about it.

That’s not exciting to Reddit. But it’s exactly what builds enduring shareholder wealth.

Ultimately, smart investing isn’t just about chasing the hot narrative — it’s about recognizing when the market is mispricing durability.

Google’s problem isn’t that it’s too old.

It’s that its maturity is being confused with irrelevance.

And that’s where the alpha hides.

📬 Missed Friday’s Edition? Here’s the Setup That Pays Me $2/Month Like Clockwork

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✅ The one mental shift that separates income traders from speculators

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🟢 Missed Another Entry? You're Not Alone — But Here's the Fix

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🧠 Final Thought

Most investors say they want asymmetric upside — but what they really want is validation. They chase crowded trades, get nervous when a stock goes quiet, and confuse narrative heat with structural advantage. Google’s not the shiny object anymore. And that’s precisely why it’s interesting.

Conviction isn’t about predicting the next headline. It’s about recognizing when the disconnect between perception and fundamentals is wide enough to walk through. When great businesses get boring, that’s when the edge reappears — quietly, patiently, and often unnoticed. The challenge isn’t seeing the value. It’s staying focused long enough for the market to see it too.